Pre-E3 2010: The challenge facing 3D stereoscopic gaming

The following is a list of reasons why I think 3D stereoscopic will be a disappointment in 2010 on consoles. The Nintendo 3DS is a different market segment that should actually do okay. Console 3D gaming will be closer to epic fail than win. There is simply no way it will be as revolutionary as the movie and TV industry PR departments would like to make us believe it will be, and this includes Sony despite it having won me over in the last year with the PS3 Slim, Uncharted 2, Heavy Rain, God of War 3 and Kevin Butler among other things. Let's get right into the list of reasons:

1) It's an expensive upgrade in a tenuous consumer economy. You mean I have to buy another new HD TV that's more expensive than regular HD flatscreen 1080p TVs? Seriously? Paying a little extra to see a movie in 3D at the theater is one thing. Shelling out another $2000 to have it in the home is another.

2) 3D movies are overrated. Yes, they do well at the box office and I am partly to blame. I saw Avatar in the theater 3 times, all in 3D. I admit I liked the movie, despite not caring deeply about the story or characters. But in watching the non-3D BluRay version I don't miss the 3D at all. The things I liked about the movie, mainly the action, art direction and the effects still look great. Yes I liked the 3D in the theater, but I forgot the i noticed the second and 3rd time I saw it the 3D gave me a headache. So then I went to Bestbuy and watched a 20 minutes of the Monsters vs. Aliens demo with the glasses. I think it was on a Samsung. Yes, the 3D functions, but it made the movie look worse. I actually thought the movie itself had solid animated crossover appeal that worked perfectly fine in 2D. The 3D implementation was beyond annoying. The movie looked artificially plastic, even ugly. I didn't find the 3D immersive...I found it distracting. 3D movies are hot right now and in the theater they make sense, but outside animation and CG films I'm distinctly bearish on them. But by that logic, wouldn't I want my games in 3D since they are by definition all animation and CG? No. No thanks. The industry has to prove how it impacts gameplay in a positive way. Every core gamer I have spoken to, especially employed men in their 20s and 30s with money has a highly skepitcal perspective on it and at best is saying "prove it" before they'll consider. All these studies saying people are curious about 3D does not mean willingness to spend on it. Of course we're all curious given how much hype has been generated by PR.

3) 3D uses more processing power. I won't get too technical, but its going to tax processors more to make games work in 3D, especially high end graphics showcases in shooter and action genres that appeal to that all important core gamer with a PS3 who is supposed to be an early adopter. This isn't necessarily a show stopper, but initially this will make it harder to engineer high end games in 3D, such as Killzone 3.

4) The glasses. I don't care what the producer of Avatar thinks, marketing is not going convince me that I should like wearing the glasses. Simply saying people accept glasses in the theater and have been wearing glasses for centuries does not mean they will be accepted for home TV/gaming.

5) The games this year are going to be marginal or irrelevant. Any new tech will take time to implement well. Even EA CEO John Riccitiello is bearish on high quality 3D games coming out this year. This has actually been true of motion control gaming on the Wii. Only Nintendo has really put out any great games on the Wii that use motion controls well but how much do you really need the motion controls? The Wii was a multi year fad, not a revolution.

6) TV industry PR departments are talking about how awesome 3D without showing any real proof from consumers. If this is true then whatever they show at E3 next week must be awesome. If they fail to impress at E3 then you know whatever they have for this fall will be terrible. I predict Sony will fail to impress us with the 3D. Not even the almighty Kevin Butler will save it.

7) Microsoft is barely making any waves. Yes they signed the deal with LG to have 1000 3D demos in stores in Korea. Outside of that, all they are saying is that they are looking into it and will have announcements later this year. But they have too much invested in Natal to distract themselves with 3D. Otherwise Microsoft needs to get its strategy in gear.

8) Current lack of standards in 3D implementations. This gets back to the glasses problem. If I buy a Sony 3D TV with compatible glasses (that are not cheap either) will those glasses work with a Panasonic TV? If my friends come over to watch Monsters. vs. Aliens on my Samsung, I'm going to need glasses for all of them and they can't bring their glasses unless they also have Samsung 3D TV.

Until I see something interesting in 3D console gaming at the show next week, I staying very bearish on this.