May 2010 NPD wrap up

NPD finally released the May 2010 data on July 2. So while America was off watching fireworks, I was thinking about the numbers. Here is the data they publicly released:


Other data for May they revealed below with comps from May 2009:

• Total industry sales fell 5% $823.5 million
  
• Software rose 4% to $466.3 million
• Accessories rose 3% to $115.7 million
• May 2010 YTD sales were down 10%
  

Hardware sales compared to April 2010:

• DS sold 383.7k units vs. 440.8k units in April
• Wii sold 334.8k units vs. 277.2 units in April
• PS3 sold 154.5k units vs. 180.8k units in April
• 360 sold 194.6k units vs. 185.4k units in April

From a hardware perspective, it's safe to say the original Xbox, the GameCube and GBA are all legacy platforms with negligible software and hardware sales. The PS2 is still marginally important (comparatively, anyway) and the PSP, while really should still be relevant, has had iffy sales for a while. For simplicity, if we pretend the DS, Wii, PS3 and 360 are the best indicators of the video game hardware market health, how is it doing overall?

Nintendo DS

There's no question that the DS has been a success, and while no generation of video game systems has the same internal and external market dynamics we can still compare cumulative hardware sales. Having recorded ever publicly released piece of NPD data on the subject, here's a simple chart we can examine:

The DS's curve got to a higher point sooner in its life cycle compared to the GBA, so by this measure it was a more successful platform. That's not the entire picture but Nintendo's track record in the handheld space the last decade has been impressive, and early signs on the 3DS are looking very positive. When first announced, many people thought the 3DS would simply be an extension of the DS a la the DS Lite, DS Lite Xi, DS Lite/iX Ultra Premium, DS Sugar Free, DS Low Carb and the thousands of other configurations. But now it seems the transition from DS to 3DS will be more like GameBoy to GBA or GBA to DS. And like the DS, the 3DS will be have a good amount of backwards compatibility. Combined with all the new stuff, mainly 3D games without glasses, 3D photos and photo sharing, WiFi (and hopefully 3G like a Kindle...maybe? Pretty please, Nintendo?), the early signs are that the 3DS will eventually be a new blockbuster handheld. Oh wait, they'll be competing with iPhones and iPod Touches...and iPads. Hmm...well I wouldn't count Nintendo out just yet.

Nintendo Wii

We all know how Wii cumulative hardware sales have been crushing both the 360 and PS3, as well as how it has blown away the GameCube when comparing them at the same point in their respective life cycles as shown below.

There is also speculation that at some point that a backwards compatible HD version of the Wii may release, though Nintendo continues to deny it. And there is also the same old story on Nintendo about how 3rd party publishers can't hold a stick against Nintendo when comes selling big units of software. If we pretend that 2010 in the life of the Wii is analogous to 2005 in the life of the GameCube, then we might expect the next Nintendo console to launch in November 2011. If that isn't on the plan, then how long is the Wii intended to last? For long time the general message from all three console manufacturers has been that this cycle would be a lot longer than the prior cycle. If the GameCube was effectively 5 years, are we at the halfway point for the Wii? Are we 2/3 the way through? 1/3? I'm willing to bet we at minimum halfway through.

As for Xbox 360 and PS3? That's going to have to wait for another blog post on the June data...