Monday, March 15, 2010

Feb 2010 NPD recap

Last Thursday while GDC was still going strong in San Francisco, NPD released February 2010 retail sales data. Per the usual Industry Gamers picked up the story and published the top 10 video game titles of the month courtesy NPD:

Hardware dollars sales were down 20% from February a year ago, while software was down 15% and accessories were flat. On the whole the month was down 15% from a year ago.

Below is a reprint of the top 10 from Feb 2009:










Observations:

1) No PSP titles made the top 10 in Feb 2009 or Feb 2010. Same story as Jan 2010 vs. Jan 2009.

2) No DS titles made the top 10 in Feb 2010, while Mario Kart and Super Mario Bros (both 1st party) made it in the top 10 in Feb 2009. Again, this is the same story as Jan 2010 vs. Jan 2009. And Feb 2010 DS hardware sales were 613k, slightly higher than Feb 2009. So despite selling a little more DS handhelds vs. a year ago, there were no DS titles in the top 10. Overall vs. Feb a year ago, DS software sales were actually down by 15%. Wait...DS hardware sales up slightly while software sales down by 15%. Ouch. Where are all those software sales going? (more on that below...)

3) Three Wii titles made the Feb 2010 top 10 vs. four in Feb 2009. No big deal there. But Wii titles ranked 2, 4, and 5 whereas in 2009 the ranks were 1, 4, 6, and 10. That's another indirect signal of Wii software decline besides the fact that total Wii hardware sales in Feb 2010 were only 398k, a huge decline from Feb 2009. Others have said and I will say it, too: the Wii needs a stimulus package or some kind of Nintendo bailout in 2010 if its business is going to pick up steam. Yes, there have been supply problems. But after all this time if demand is still that strong to outstrip supply, you'd think Nintendo would keep the retail inventory a little higher? What's up with that?

4) Next we get to the "concentration percentage" that I failed to coin when looking at last month. By that I mean, what percentage of total unit sales for the month were represented by the top 10 titles? In Feb 2009 the top 10 sellers by units represented 16% of total software unit sales. In Feb 2010, it rose to 20%. That isn't terribly concerning, however total software unit sales were down by 16%. Once again, the top titles are taking a larger share of a shrinking market. Still, we are in a worse economic climate for video game sales now than a year ago before the bottom dropped out so comps aren't exactly apples to apples...but still, it's a stat to watch.

5) Despite the brewing legal battle between Activision and the two Infinity Ward studio execs it fired on March 1, Modern Warfare 2 is still selling: 314k units on Xbox360 and 253k units on PS3, meaning MW2 on PS3 was 80.5% of the sales on Xbox360 for the month. In January 2010 the PS3 to Xbox360 ratio for MW2 was a similar 79%. Compared to other big multiplatform launches, this is a higher ratio. Good news for Sony.

6) Speaking of point #5 above, Bioshock on Xbox360 did 563k units, while on the PS3 version did not register in the top 10. That's a much lower ratio of PS3 to 360 units. Not so good for Sony.

Back to #2 above...
Where are all those DS sales going? Despite the general management declarations from both Sony and Nintendo, the iPhone and iPod Touch are defacto competitors to the PSP and DS. On Dec 31, 2009 in my last 10 years recap post I talked about how there was data showing iPod Touch app/game downloads spiked much higher than iPhone app/game downloads on Christmas day, indicating the iPod Touch was a big Christmas present. Beyond that data, I have been noticing more kids playing with these Apple systems and fewer playing with DS and PSP systems. That is not scientific evidence nor should it be misinterpreted as proof that the iPhone is eating into the DS/PSP market. Instead, I am simply asserting based on pieces of data I have seen plus my observations of kids around Los Angeles (and San Francicso...and Chicago...) that, in fact, the iPhone is starting to cannibalize the DS/PSP market. If you have supporting or counter evidence, please do let me know.

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